user-generated· World
Will the U.S. mainland experience a direct hit from a major hurricane…
Market overview
With Isaias already formed, the hurricane season is underway. This question focuses on the impact of a significant storm making landfall on the U.S. mainland. Major hurricane landfalls are impactful but not guaranteed every year.
World prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 35%
- Closes
- 2026-11-30
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirms that a hurricane of Category 3 strength or higher (111 mph or greater sustained winds) makes landfall on the continental U.S. coastline (excluding Alaska and Hawaii) between 2026-10-12 and 2026-11-30. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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