Will the United States re-enter the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran by December 31, 2024?

The headline suggests a potential de-escalation and a 'deal is close.' This question explores whether this 'deal' will lead to a re-engagement with the previous nuclear agreement. The probability is low given the current political climate and past US withdrawal.

Implied probability (Yes)

15%

Closes

2026-09-09