UK stock market underperforms EU peers by 3% in Q3 2026

Investor caution over Starmer's EU reset and domestic political instability causes UK equities (FTSE 100) to underperform Eurozone equities (Euro Stoxx 50) by 3% or more during Q3 2026. Economic uncertainty outweighs potential benefits of closer EU ties.

Implied probability (Yes)

68%