Will the S&P 500 close below its 50-day moving average on at least three trading days in October 2028?

The headline indicates a pullback in US stocks due to Mideast developments. Sustained geopolitical tension could lead to further market weakness, pushing the S&P 500 below a key technical indicator. However, markets often recover quickly from such events.

Implied probability (Yes)

40%

Closes

2030-08-31