UK inflation spikes above 4% in mid-2027 due to Iran war disruptions

The Iran war has disrupted global oil supplies, and UK front-loaded spending in March suggests pent-up demand for energy-intensive goods. With OPEC+ production cuts likely to persist, UK inflation will likely reaccelerate in Q2-Q3 2025 despite earlier disinflation trends.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2027-12-31