Barrier lake will breach by Dec 31, 2026
Resolves: Official confirmation from Nepal or China that lake has breached, causing downstream flooding.
user-generated· event
Barrier lake will breach by Dec 31, 2026
Market overview
Lake formed by landslide near Nepal-Tibet border will breach, causing downstream flooding.
event prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Official confirmation from Nepal or China that lake has breached, causing downstream flooding.
Source: user-generated
More event markets
- Venus Aerospace stock or acquisition announced by end of 2028 — 60% Yes
- UK rail passenger numbers decline by 5% year-over-year in Q4 2026 — 60% Yes
- DSA loses next high-profile primary — 70% Yes
- France hosts UEFA Euro 2028 before 2027 — 72% Yes
- WHO declares mpox a PHEIC by Dec 2026 — 70% Yes
- Morocco will submit a formal bid to host 2030 World Cup final — 75% Yes
- South Africa flood-related fatalities exceed 50 by May 20 — 78% Yes
- Spain wildfire death toll exceeds 50 by end of 2026 — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…