Trump administration will appoint a pro-industry FDA Commissioner by Q4 2026

The White House has signaled a preference for a 'less disruptive, pro-industry' FDA leader. If Makary leaves or is replaced, the administration is likely to appoint a figure from within the FDA or a former commissioner (e.g., Stephen Hahn or Brett Giroir) to align with Trump's deregulatory agenda.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%