Bluesky’s monthly active user count drops below 40M by October 2027

Despite Schneider’s permanent appointment, user retention remains weak due to competition from X and Threads. Bluesky’s monthly active users fall below 40M by October 2027, reversing recent gains.

adoption · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

Closes

2027-10-31

More adoption markets

• OpenAI Codex mobile usage exceeds desktop by Q1 2027 — 72% Yes
• OpenAI Codex mobile usage surpasses desktop within 6 months — 70% Yes
• PGA Tour Shop app downloads increase 25% YoY in 2026 — 68% Yes
• Bluesky's AT Protocol gains adoption by 3 major third-party apps by Q1 2027 — 55% Yes
• iOS 27 public release sees 20% adoption within first 6 weeks — 60% Yes
• Animal rights NGOs expand operations in Uganda by 2027 — 75% Yes
• Passive ETF inflows into SpaceX exceed $1.5 billion by October 2026 — 55% Yes
• Anthropic's enterprise AI share surpasses 30% by Q4 2026 — 75% Yes

Browse all adoption markets →