Labour Party replaces Starmer with Angela Rayner by December 2028

Market overview

If Starmer resigns, the Labour Party will appoint Angela Rayner as his successor by December 2024. Rayner’s prominence, recent electoral performance, and alignment with party factions position her as the most likely replacement.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

35%

Closes

2028-12-31

Source: user-generated

More leadership markets

• Will CFO resign before 2026-12-31? — 40% Yes
• Rep. Edwards resigns from Congress before 2026 midterms — 55% Yes
• Chuck Edwards to resign before Ethics Committee ruling — 70% Yes
• Witkoff Rubio partnership gains influence in Middle East policy by 2027 — 55% Yes
• Edwards resigns from Congress by end of 2028 — 60% Yes
• Trump administration to nominate a more industry-aligned FDA chief by Labor Day — 68% Yes
• NRCC chair calls for town halls ban by 2027 — 60% Yes
• Will CEO Mark Zediker resign before FYE? — 60% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →