Shanghai Composite index outperforms S&P 500 in 2026 H2

Chinese equities underperformed in May 2026 due to uncertainty, but a successful Xi-Trump deal would spur a recovery in H2. If trade tensions ease, domestic demand improves, or stimulus measures are enacted, Shanghai Composite could outperform the S&P 500 in the second half of 2026.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%