2026 global average temperature exceeds 2024 record

Market overview

NASA and NOAA confirm 2026 as hottest year on record, beating 2024.

macro prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2027-01-31

Source: user-generated

More macro markets

• West African regional flood relief fund exceeds $200M by 2026-12-31 — 60% Yes
• U.S. drone market revenue surpasses $10B in 2026 — 68% Yes
• French GDP contracts for two consecutive quarters by Q4 2026 — 78% Yes
• UAE doubles crude oil supply to India by year-end — 60% Yes
• USAID Ebola funding restored to 2023 levels by 2027-06-30 — 70% Yes
• US labor force growth exceeds 1.2% in 2029 — 72% Yes
• Global trade volume declines by 2% within 90 days of ruling — 60% Yes
• China's 2026 marriage rate declines further by year-end — 80% Yes

Browse all macro markets →