Will the 'AI' sector, as defined by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) sub-industry 'Application Software' and 'Semiconductors' combined, experience a cumulative decline of 10% or more from its April 22, 2028 closing value by July 31, 2028?

The headline suggests a 'broad AI rout.' This question attempts to quantify the severity and duration of this downturn specifically within the AI-related sectors, using a broader market definition.

Implied probability (Yes)

40%

Closes

2030-08-30