Will there be a significant escalation of military conflict between Israel and Lebanon, resulting in over 100 reported fatalities on either side, by December 31, 2024?

Hezbollah's rejection of the ceasefire increases the risk of continued or escalated conflict. However, both sides often operate with a degree of restraint to avoid full-scale war, making a major escalation with high casualties less likely but still possible.

Implied probability (Yes)

40%

Closes

2026-09-02