S&P 500 gains over 0.75% if payrolls exceed 85,000

If the April jobs report shows payroll growth between 85,000 and 125,000, JPMorgan assigns a 25% probability that the S&P 500 rises by at least 0.75%. A strong but not excessive jobs report reduces stagflation fears, boosting equities.

Implied probability (Yes)

25%