Will the Suez Canal's average daily shipping traffic (in TEUs) decrease by more than 10% in any single month compared to its 2028 monthly average, before October 1, 2028?

A conflict involving Iran could significantly impact maritime routes, especially those critical for global trade like the Suez Canal, due to direct threats or increased insurance costs. A sustained reduction in traffic would indicate a major shift in supply chain routes. This question assesses the immediate impact on a key chokepoint.

Implied probability (Yes)

30%

Closes

2030-07-30