TikTok's daily viewing time surpasses Netflix in US by Q4 2026
Resolves: eMarketer or a comparable analytics firm reports that TikTok's average daily viewing time among US adults exceeds Netflix's for the first time in Q4 2026, with TikTok at ≥100 minutes and Netflix at ≤90 minutes.
TikTok's daily viewing time surpasses Netflix in US by Q4 2026
Market overview
By the end of Q4 2026, TikTok will overtake Netflix in average daily viewing time among US adults, with TikTok exceeding 100 minutes per day and Netflix falling below 90 minutes. This shift reflects the growing dominance of short-form video.
adoption prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2027-01-15
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
eMarketer or a comparable analytics firm reports that TikTok's average daily viewing time among US adults exceeds Netflix's for the first time in Q4 2026, with TikTok at ≥100 minutes and Netflix at ≤90 minutes.
Source: user-generated
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