Conservative Party membership declines by at least 5% by 2027-06-30
Resolves: Conservative Party releases official membership numbers showing a decline of at least 5% from the June 30, 2026 figure by this date.
user-generated· leadership
Conservative Party membership declines by at least 5% by 2027-06-30
Market overview
The murder of Ann Widdecombe, a prominent and divisive figure within the Conservative Party, will exacerbate existing internal tensions and lead to a further decline in party membership. This continues a trend observed in recent years.
leadership prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2027-06-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Conservative Party releases official membership numbers showing a decline of at least 5% from the June 30, 2026 figure by this date.
Source: user-generated
More leadership markets
- Will CFO resign before 2026-12-31? — 40% Yes
- Rep. Edwards resigns from Congress before 2026 midterms — 55% Yes
- Chuck Edwards to resign before Ethics Committee ruling — 70% Yes
- Witkoff Rubio partnership gains influence in Middle East policy by 2027 — 55% Yes
- Edwards resigns from Congress by end of 2028 — 60% Yes
- Trump administration to nominate a more industry-aligned FDA chief by Labor Day — 68% Yes
- NRCC chair calls for town halls ban by 2027 — 60% Yes
- Will CEO Mark Zediker resign before FYE? — 60% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…