Cuba's GDP contracts over 5% in 2026 due to fuel crisis

Cuba's complete loss of oil and diesel imports will cripple transportation, agriculture, and electricity generation, leading to a severe economic contraction. The IMF and World Bank have not yet revised their 2026 GDP forecasts for Cuba, but the crisis will likely exceed their projections. Economic indicators such as industrial production and trade volumes will reflect the collapse.

Implied probability (Yes)

78%