Mojtaba Khamenei to consolidate power by end of 2026

Despite his absence from the funeral, Mojtaba Khamenei's succession is expected given his familial ties and the Islamic Republic's dynastic tendencies. The regime will likely use the post-funeral period to stabilize his leadership through purges and reshuffles.

leadership · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

75%

Closes

2026-12-31

More leadership markets

• Starmer survives leadership challenge, cabinet reshuffle by September 2027 — 55% Yes
• Labour MPs to trigger leadership challenge within 30 days — 60% Yes
• Labour Party removes Starmer as leader by October 2028 — 70% Yes
• Nigel Farage to become UK Prime Minister by 2027 — 35% Yes
• Carl Heastie faces leadership challenge by 2027 — 60% Yes
• Keir Starmer resigns as Prime Minister by October 2027 — 60% Yes
• UK Labour Party loses another junior minister by October 2027 — 70% Yes
• Wes Streeting will announce a leadership bid against Keir Starmer by July 2027 — 70% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →