Will any major European junk-rated company (with over €1 billion in debt) default on its bonds by June 30, 2028?

While a hot market can reduce borrowing costs, it doesn't eliminate all risk, especially for 'junk firms.' This question tests whether the current market conditions will prevent significant defaults among larger, higher-risk companies in the near future.

Implied probability (Yes)

25%

Closes

2030-08-30