Global conflict-driven displacements will exceed 35m in 2026

2025 saw a 60% year-over-year increase in conflict-driven displacements to 32.3m. With no major de-escalation in conflicts (e.g., Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar), the trend is likely to continue or accelerate in 2026. Historical growth rates suggest a 65% chance of surpassing 35m.

Implied probability (Yes)

75%