Iran's uranium stockpile will be partially relocated by December 2026
Resolves: IAEA confirms partial relocation of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile to undisclosed or hardened facilities via inspection reports or satellite imagery.
user-generated· regulatory
Iran's uranium stockpile will be partially relocated by December 2026
Market overview
Given the damage to the Isfahan complex and ongoing Israeli strikes, Iran's nuclear program will adapt by dispersing enriched uranium to less vulnerable sites. IAEA inspections or intelligence reports by December 2026 will confirm partial relocation.
regulatory prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 72%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
IAEA confirms partial relocation of Iran's enriched uranium stockpile to undisclosed or hardened facilities via inspection reports or satellite imagery.
Source: user-generated
More regulatory markets
- IMF approves debt restructuring for 12 low-income countries by 2027 — 72% Yes
- Reform UK to face formal sanctions by Dec 2026 — 70% Yes
- EU approves 1.2B euro wildfire resilience fund by December 2026 — 72% Yes
- UK government reinstates SHEFE funding within 12 months — 30% Yes
- US AI Safety Institute cites Anthropic paper by 2027-08-29 — 70% Yes
- U.S. diesel export ban enacted by Dec 31 2026 — 55% Yes
- Gabon extends social media ban beyond 2026 elections — 80% Yes
- UNICEF or World Bank replaces UK funding for SHEFE within 6 months — 70% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…