20% of initial $1,000 deposits in Trump Accounts withdrawn before age 18
Resolves: At least 20% of the $1,000 initial deposits made between July 4, 2026 and December 31, 2026 are withdrawn prior to the child’s 18th birthday, supported by Treasury or IRS audit data.
user-generated· legal
20% of initial $1,000 deposits in Trump Accounts withdrawn before age…
Market overview
Despite the 18-year lock-in period, 20% of families will withdraw the initial $1,000 federal contribution early due to financial hardship or misinterpretation of the program’s rules. Robinhood’s app design and the Treasury’s outreach efforts will not fully prevent this behavior.
legal prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2028-07-04
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
At least 20% of the $1,000 initial deposits made between July 4, 2026 and December 31, 2026 are withdrawn prior to the child’s 18th birthday, supported by Treasury or IRS audit data.
Source: user-generated
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