Will there be a significant increase (over 20%) in reported bandit-related abductions in Nigeria's North-West region in the three months following May 15, 2024, compared to the preceding three months?

This incident could embolden bandits or lead to a breakdown of any existing informal truces, potentially escalating violence. This question gauges the broader impact on regional security and bandit activity.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Closes

2026-09-09