Will a new, publicly disclosed US intelligence program or capability, designed to address the 'trouble' with spy powers, be announced by December 31, 2024?

The 'deep trouble' implies a need for new solutions or adaptations within the intelligence community. While many programs remain classified, significant shifts or new initiatives are sometimes publicly acknowledged to reassure allies or deter adversaries.

Implied probability (Yes)

40%

Closes

2026-09-09