Raffensperger survives assassination attempt before 2026 election

Given the credible threat involving a manifesto with violent imagery and a suspicious object at a campaign event, the probability of a direct assassination attempt on Brad Raffensperger increases. His high-profile status as a 2020 election integrity advocate makes him a target for extremists. Historical patterns of political violence in U.S. elections suggest this risk is non-negligible.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%