U.S. lifts AI chip export controls on China by Q3 2026

Trump's push for AI cooperation with China leads to a partial easing of U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips, with the Biden administration lifting restrictions on specific low-end AI accelerators by September 30, 2026. This is framed as a confidence-building measure in exchange for China's commitments on AI safety.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%