Will the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) issue a report by June 30, 2027, indicating Iran has significantly reduced its uranium enrichment levels (below 20%)?

A 'very close' deal would likely involve concessions from Iran on its nuclear program. This question tests if a key indicator of de-escalation, often a precursor to a deal, will be observed soon.

Implied probability (Yes)

15%

Closes

2029-08-27