Fed signals pause in June if jobs report matches JPMorgan’s 50,000 estimate

JPMorgan expects 50,000 jobs added in April, aligning with a 'low-hire, low-fire' labor market. If this materializes, it would reinforce expectations for a Fed policy pause in June, given muted inflation and growth pressures. This would support risk assets like equities and gold.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%