S&P 500 rises 0.5-1% if April jobs report is 85,000 to 125,000

JPMorgan assigns a 25% chance to payroll growth between 85,000 and 125,000, which aligns with the 'low-hire, low-fire' environment and reduces stagflation risks. This scenario is likely to be viewed positively by markets.

Implied probability (Yes)

70%