Eluned Morgan loses her Senedd seat

Market overview

Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan fails to retain her Senedd seat in the election. Her loss would symbolize Labour's broader decline in Wales and could force a leadership change within the Welsh Labour party. This outcome aligns with polling suggesting her seat was at risk.

leadership prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

65%

Source: user-generated

More leadership markets

• Will CFO resign before 2026-12-31? — 40% Yes
• Rep. Edwards resigns from Congress before 2026 midterms — 55% Yes
• Chuck Edwards to resign before Ethics Committee ruling — 70% Yes
• Witkoff Rubio partnership gains influence in Middle East policy by 2027 — 55% Yes
• Edwards resigns from Congress by end of 2028 — 60% Yes
• Trump administration to nominate a more industry-aligned FDA chief by Labor Day — 68% Yes
• NRCC chair calls for town halls ban by 2027 — 60% Yes
• Will CEO Mark Zediker resign before FYE? — 60% Yes

Browse all leadership markets →