Oct 2026 early release recidivism rate ≥30%
Resolves: Official UK government data shows reoffending rate ≥30% for that cohort within 6 months.
user-generated· event
Oct 2026 early release recidivism rate ≥30%
Market overview
At least 30% of prisoners released in Oct 2026 scheme reoffend within 6 months.
event prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 65%
- Closes
- 2027-04-30
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Official UK government data shows reoffending rate ≥30% for that cohort within 6 months.
Source: user-generated
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