Elon Musk's ownership stake in SpaceX falls below 50%

Market overview

Post-IPO, Musk's stake is expected to dilute to ~40-45% due to employee share sales and secondary offerings. Regulatory scrutiny may limit further dilution in the first year.

regulatory prediction market

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Source: user-generated

More regulatory markets

• FIFA reinstates Balogun suspension within 30 days — 70% Yes
• UK issues travel advisory warning for southern Spain by 2026-07-25 — 80% Yes
• FIFA faces formal ethics complaint from UEFA by July 2026 — 75% Yes
• DCCC dues payment compliance increases by 2026 midterms — 75% Yes
• Forge Global secures Anthropic approval within 6 months — 75% Yes
• UK government increases teacher pay offer by 2%+ in 2027 — 45% Yes
• FIFA issues formal disciplinary action against Trump by 2026-12-31 — 70% Yes
• FIFA issues formal reprimand against U.S. Soccer for Trump interference — 75% Yes

Browse all regulatory markets →