Sir Keir Starmer to resign as UK Prime Minister by July 20, 2026

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will resign from office by July 20, 2026, with Andy Burnham confirmed as his successor. The resignation is expected to occur the day after the World Cup final, regardless of England's result, as previously signaled.

leadership · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

85%

Closes

2026-07-20

More leadership markets

• Starmer survives leadership challenge, cabinet reshuffle by September 2027 — 55% Yes
• Labour MPs to trigger leadership challenge within 30 days — 60% Yes
• Prince Harry meets King Charles III during UK visit — 45% Yes
• Andy Burnham will win a parliamentary seat by 2028 — 60% Yes
• Labour Party removes Starmer as leader by October 2028 — 70% Yes
• Keir Starmer will survive Streeting's challenge by 2028-10-31 — 75% Yes
• Nigel Farage to become UK Prime Minister by 2027 — 35% Yes
• Wes Streeting will announce a leadership bid against Keir Starmer by July 2027 — 70% Yes

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