Reform UK loses 10% of its membership within 6 months
Resolves: Reform UK's official membership count as reported by the party or a reputable media outlet shows a decline of at least 10% from the level recorded on 2026-07-10.
user-generated· leadership
Reform UK loses 10% of its membership within 6 months
Market overview
Ann Widdecombe was a high-profile figure in Reform UK, known for her immigration and justice advocacy. Her death may demotivate supporters or prompt disillusionment among members who joined under her influence, leading to a measurable drop in membership.
leadership prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 68%
- Closes
- 2027-01-10
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Reform UK's official membership count as reported by the party or a reputable media outlet shows a decline of at least 10% from the level recorded on 2026-07-10.
Source: user-generated
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