NASA selects SpaceX for Mars mission contract by Oct 2026

Given Wall Street's backing and SpaceX's advancing Starship program, NASA will award a major contract to SpaceX for a Mars mission by October 2026. This reflects the agency's confidence in SpaceX's technical and financial trajectory supported by fresh capital.

regulatory · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Closes

2026-10-31

More regulatory markets

• UK government increases teacher pay offer by 2%+ in 2027 — 45% Yes
• FIFA issues formal disciplinary action against Trump by 2026-12-31 — 70% Yes
• UK government to allocate £200M for river clean-up by 2026 — 70% Yes
• FIFA issues formal reprimand against U.S. Soccer for Trump interference — 75% Yes
• Trump administration implements AI guardrails by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• FIFA reinstates Balogun suspension within 30 days — 70% Yes
• Mississippi will revoke xAI's turbine loophole by Q4 2026 — 75% Yes
• Forge Global secures Anthropic approval within 6 months — 75% Yes

Browse all regulatory markets →