US lifts sanctions on Iran by end of 2026 if ceasefire holds
Resolves: The US Treasury Department announces the lifting or easing of at least one major sanctions regime (e.g., oil-related or banking) against Iran by December 31, 2026, explicitly tied to compliance with the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire terms.
US lifts sanctions on Iran by end of 2026 if ceasefire holds
Market overview
The US has signaled a conditional approach to Iran, tying sanctions relief to compliance with the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire. Given Trump's stated willingness to engage in talks, partial sanctions easing is plausible if Iran meets US demands by the end of 2026.
regulatory prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
The US Treasury Department announces the lifting or easing of at least one major sanctions regime (e.g., oil-related or banking) against Iran by December 31, 2026, explicitly tied to compliance with the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire terms.
Source: user-generated
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