Will the Strait of Hormuz be officially declared fully open to unrestricted international shipping by November 30, 2028?

The headline indicates the reopening of Hormuz is 'near.' This question assesses whether this 'reopening' translates into an official declaration of unrestricted passage, implying a de-escalation of tensions in the region. The probability considers the volatility of regional politics.

Implied probability (Yes)

55%

Closes

2030-08-22