Xbox Game Pass subscriber growth declines 5% YoY by Q4 2026
Resolves: Xbox Game Pass has fewer subscribers in Q4 2026 compared to Q4 2025, representing a decline of at least 5% YoY.
user-generated· adoption
Xbox Game Pass subscriber growth declines 5% YoY by Q4 2026
Market overview
Microsoft's Xbox Game Pass will see a decline in subscriber growth by the end of Q4 2026 due to repeated price hikes and consumer pushback. The decline will be measured by comparing subscriber numbers to the same period in 2025.
adoption prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 70%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Xbox Game Pass has fewer subscribers in Q4 2026 compared to Q4 2025, representing a decline of at least 5% YoY.
Source: user-generated
More adoption markets
- Daily active crypto users surpass 100 million by mid-2026 — 60% Yes
- Kalshi’s market share in crypto derivatives surpasses 5% by Q4 2027 — 55% Yes
- Kalshi's crypto perpetual futures launch by 2026-Q4 — 75% Yes
- Family offices double down on crypto-adjacent mining firms within 6 months — 72% Yes
- Nigeria's crypto transaction volume exceeds $5B in 2026 — 80% Yes
- AI and crypto groups increase political ad spending in 2026 midterms — 80% Yes
- Crypto and AI groups double political ad spending by 2027 — 75% Yes
- Crypto billionaire Harborne will increase donations to Farage by 20% by Mar 2027 — 60% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…