Starmer resigns as UK Prime Minister by October 2028

Given the rising number of Labour MPs publicly criticizing Starmer and the historical precedent of party leaders being toppled after electoral setbacks, the risk of a leadership challenge or resignation increases significantly. Starmer’s ability to retain his position depends on reversing the party’s losses in local elections and regaining public confidence.

Implied probability (Yes)

60%

Closes

2028-12-31