user-generated· Economics
Will the U.S. unemployment rate exceed 4.5% at any point during 2025?
Market overview
If job creation was weaker than reported for 2025-26, it suggests a softening labor market. A sustained period of weaker job growth could push the unemployment rate higher than current levels. This question assesses the likelihood of a more significant labor market downturn.
Economics prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 40%
- Closes
- 2026-11-26
About this prediction
How this resolves
YES if the seasonally adjusted U.S. unemployment rate, as reported by the BLS for any single month between January 2025 and December 2025 (inclusive), is 4.6% or higher. NO otherwise.
Source: user-generated
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