S&P 500 falls 3% within 30 days due to broader trade war fears

Trump's threat to cut off trade with Spain escalates into a broader EU trade dispute, triggering a global risk-off sentiment. Market participants anticipate contagion effects on U.S. equities, particularly sectors reliant on European supply chains.

macro · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

70%

Closes

2026-08-09

More macro markets

• Labour loses 10% of its UK polling lead to Greens by 2027 — 68% Yes
• S&P 500 surpasses 6,500 by December 2027 — 70% Yes
• Highway Trust Fund revenue loss triggers 2027 infrastructure cuts — 60% Yes
• Australian coal exports to China fall 15% by Q4 2026 due to supply disruptions — 60% Yes
• Iran exports LPG volume rises 15% by Q4 2026 — 70% Yes
• US dollar strengthens against yuan by 5% within 6 months — 70% Yes
• Foreign institutional outflows from Japan equities exceed $50B by 2026 Q3 — 72% Yes
• NY budget passes with pension reform by June 30 — 70% Yes

Browse all macro markets →