Will a majority of Republican senators vote in favor of a federal bill protecting same-sex marriage by the end of 2025?

Despite the poll indicating sinking support, this question tests if a future legislative push could still garner majority Republican Senate votes, perhaps due to evolving political pressures or specific bill language. The Respect for Marriage Act passed with 12 Republican Senate votes in 2022.

Implied probability (Yes)

15%

Closes

2026-09-01