S&P 500 gains 2% by June 15, 2026 amid sustained Iran ceasefire

The S&P 500 is poised to extend gains as the Iran ceasefire reduces geopolitical risk premiums and chip stocks lead the rally. With futures already up 0.6% and sector breadth improving, a 2% gain by mid-June is plausible. Historical patterns suggest positive momentum following geopolitical de-escalations.

Implied probability (Yes)

68%