Supreme Court blocks Carroll's $5.8M disbursement by October 2026

Trump's legal team could appeal to the Supreme Court to block the disbursement. Given the high-profile nature of the case and Trump's prior attempts to delay, a temporary or permanent block is plausible.

legal · Prediction Market

Implied probability (Yes)

45%

Closes

2026-10-09

More legal markets

• Human rights groups to file major international legal challenges — 80% Yes
• Will a new federal or state regulation specifically targeting the organization or monitoring of political 'watch parties' be proposed in the US by December 31, 2028? — 30% Yes
• Open Doors Partners faces legal action from Anthropic within 6 months — 55% Yes
• Redistricting litigation filings exceed 50 by mid-2027 — 80% Yes
• Will Donald Trump face new criminal tax evasion charges in New York State by December 31, 2027? — 15% Yes
• Will any officer depicted in the bodycam footage face criminal charges directly related to the events shown by March 31, 2028? — 30% Yes
• FIFA sanctions Balogun after Belgian complaint — 75% Yes
• Trump assassination attempt trial concludes before 2027 inauguration — 75% Yes

Browse all legal markets →