Will at least one new individual hold a top-three leadership position (Senate Majority Leader, Assembly Speaker, or Governor) in New York State by January 1, 2025, who did not hold it on January 1, 2024?

This question broadly captures the 'biggest leadership shake-up' aspect by looking for any change among the three most prominent Democratic leadership roles in New York State. It allows for a change in any of these positions to resolve as YES.

Implied probability (Yes)

40%

Closes

2026-09-09