UN reports genocidal violence in El Obeid by Q1 2027
Resolves: UN or international tribunal issues a formal report or resolution accusing the RSF of genocidal violence or ethnic cleansing in El Obeid.
user-generated· legal
UN reports genocidal violence in El Obeid by Q1 2027
Market overview
By March 2027, the UN or an independent fact-finding mission will formally report genocidal violence or ethnic cleansing in El Obeid. This follows documented patterns of violence in RSF-held areas, including El Fasher.
legal prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 60%
- Closes
- 2027-03-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
UN or international tribunal issues a formal report or resolution accusing the RSF of genocidal violence or ethnic cleansing in El Obeid.
Source: user-generated
More legal markets
- Will Baviskar's trading accounts be permanently restricted by November 25, 2026? — 95% Yes
- Will Ichcoin Tech Corp. settle with the SEC within 90 days? — 75% Yes
- Will any individual respondent settle with the SEC before year-end 2026? — 30% Yes
- Will the SEC announce a freeze on Ferder's personal assets by November 30, 2026? — 70% Yes
- Will Bonanza Global investors recover more than $1M by November 2026? — 25% Yes
- Will at least one respondent comply with subpoenas within 30 days of court order? — 65% Yes
- Will the court impose a civil penalty on Chavez by 2026-12-01? — 90% Yes
- SEC drops enforcement actions against major crypto exchanges within 12 months — 55% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…