Johnson resigns as Speaker by 2026 year-end
Resolves: Mike Johnson ceases to serve as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, either by resignation or removal, by the stated date.
user-generated· leadership
Johnson resigns as Speaker by 2026 year-end
Market overview
The ongoing failure to advance key legislation and the accumulation of rule vote defeats will erode Johnson’s leadership credibility. At least 215 Republican members, frustrated by the gridlock, will sign a discharge petition or trigger a leadership challenge by December 31, 2026.
leadership prediction market
- Implied probability (Yes)
- 45%
- Closes
- 2026-12-31
About this prediction
Resolution criteria
Mike Johnson ceases to serve as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, either by resignation or removal, by the stated date.
Source: user-generated
More leadership markets
- Will CFO resign before 2026-12-31? — 40% Yes
- Rep. Edwards resigns from Congress before 2026 midterms — 55% Yes
- Chuck Edwards to resign before Ethics Committee ruling — 70% Yes
- Witkoff Rubio partnership gains influence in Middle East policy by 2027 — 55% Yes
- Edwards resigns from Congress by end of 2028 — 60% Yes
- Trump administration to nominate a more industry-aligned FDA chief by Labor Day — 68% Yes
- NRCC chair calls for town halls ban by 2027 — 60% Yes
- Will CEO Mark Zediker resign before FYE? — 60% Yes
No one's made a Conviction call on this yet. Be the first to call it →
Loading…