Will the number of asylum applications filed in the US by citizens of the 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change (according to the ND-GAIN Index) decrease by more than 10% in 2025 compared to 2023?

This question explores a potential consequence of policies or rhetoric targeting climate-affected immigrants. It uses a quantifiable metric (asylum applications) and a recognized index for climate vulnerability.

Implied probability (Yes)

45%

Closes

2026-09-12