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Argentina's Merval Index falls below 150,000 by March 2027

Resolves: Merval Index (ARS) closing value below 150,000 at any point between 2026-07-08 and 2027-03-31

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Argentina's Merval Index falls below 150,000 by March 2027

Market overview

Given persistent inflation and policy uncertainty highlighted in the video, Argentina's benchmark stock index is likely to decline materially. The Merval Index has historically mirrored political and economic volatility, suggesting a 30% drop from current levels (approx. 215,000) by March 2027.

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Implied probability (Yes)
72%
Closes
2027-03-31

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Resolution criteria

Merval Index (ARS) closing value below 150,000 at any point between 2026-07-08 and 2027-03-31

Source: user-generated

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